I was never a Boy Scout, but I’ve always embraced their moto to “Be Prepared”. Through the years some have said I’m a prophetic type of person based upon some of the books I’ve written, but the truth be known I’ve just been a person who spends a lot of time with the Lord asking Him to show me things I need to see. I often think about future events in an attempt to prepare myself and my family for the potential of upcoming struggles and difficulties. Throughout my life this has paid off many times.

This life practice has been a response to a Bible passage in  the Gospel of Luke where Jesus gave  us a warning: Luke 12:54 “ Jesus[, also said to the crowds, “When you see a cloud rising in the west, you say at once, ‘A rainstorm is coming,’ and it does…  You hypocrites![ You know how to interpret the appearance of the earth and the sky, but how can you not know how[ to interpret the present time?” [NET]

The fact is, I do see a cloud rising in the west right now and it’s my belief a storm is brewing, and not just a storm, but a perfect storm.  I see a calamity of errors all colliding at once having the potential to bring America to its knees if something doesn’t soon change.

There’s no secret, food is becoming more expensive month by month. Many are beginning to struggle to put wholesome meals on the table amid so many other escalating expenditures such as fuel, mortgage, childcare, health insurance, etc. Life is becoming increasingly more difficult and far more expensive; there’s no new revelation concerning these facts. My concern, however, is not merely one of expense, but of availability. I believe our world is about to experience a wave of food insecurity greater than ever, not only in the developing nations, but right here in the USA. There are many reasons for this coming deficit, but I would like, as briefly as possible, to highlight ten. Some of these problems can be corrected with adequate government oversight while others may not. I write this not to be a dooms day prophet, but to encourage action and solution.

My ten top reasons food insecurity will escalate in America: 

  1. A historical transition from the family farm to commercial agriculture.

Before WWII most of America was made up of thousands of small (160 acres plus) family farms. For generations farming had been both organic and sustainable using natural fertilizers and seed which could be harvested from previous crops and used year after year. Farms were small enough to use basic easily maintained farm equipment and the children of large families were participants who shared in the workload. After WWII everything shifted to industrial, commercial farming which relied on newly engineered chemical fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, hybrid seed and technological advances in machinery, production and distribution. Farming became big business and complex with many moving parts. This transition put the ability for America to feed itself and other poverty-stricken nations in the hands of the corporate world.

  1. A rapidly changing climate.

The debate is a bygone issue; the climate is changing and it is having an escalating negative impact on the world’s ability to grow consistent crops. The planet’s increasing temperatures are creating difficult conditions for farmers due to inconsistent temperature ranges, dependable rain fall, insect invasion and soil degradation. Farmers are more readily losing crops from prolonged heatwaves, drought, flooding, early freezing and other unpredictable weather disasters. Especially in the western part of the country the lack of consistent winter snowpack in the mountains has had a direct impact on summer irrigation.

  1. A growing world population – we have more mouths to feed.

Before WWII the world population was approximately two billion people. Today it has passed eight billion and is on its way to nine. Feeding the world population continually grows in complexity. It is estimated that nearly ten percent of the world in now experiencing chronic hunger. The distribution of food worldwide is a growing complex problem often interrupted by war and armed conflict as we are currently experiencing in the Middle East. These disruption not only impact the developing world, but America as well.

  1. Global Tariffs are disrupting the flow and production of food worldwide.

The burden of recent tariffs are causing hardship for American farmers not only because of the loss of overseas markets, but also because of the expense of necessary imported parts needed to maintain heavy farm equipment. One example; John Deere parts are now primarily manufactured in China.

  1. The escalating price of fuel.

Most farm equipment in today’s world depends on vast amounts of diesel fuel which has recently escalated to upwards of six dollars a gallon due to the conflict in Iran with the US and Israel which has caused the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Deisel fuel powers not only tractors, but other equipment such as harvesters, irrigation pumps and grain trucks.  Seventy percent of Americas food distribution relays on large truck transportation which also requires affordable diesel.

 

  1. Chemical fertilizer shortage.

For the same reason diesel fuel relies on the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, chemical fertilizer is petroleum based and one third of the world’s production must pass through it as well. Even if the strait opened today, the effects of the war will have a lasting impact on American farming.  In order for this year’s spring crops to be planted, fertilization is essential within the month. Without it there may not be a crop to harvest.

  1. The rapid disappearance of the American honeybee.

We have known for some time the honeybees in America have been on decline but their disappearance has experienced an alarming acceleration in the last year. Already there are barely enough bees available to pollinate major food crops across the country. It was recently reported that over 50% of bee colonies collapsed in one year in America. Bees are responsible for pollinating 70% of America’s major crops. It is reported that this die off is a result of a class of insecticides known as “neonics” said to be 1000 times more lethal to bees than DDT.

  1. The absence and decline of migrant farm workers.

Due to an escalation of immigration policies and enforcement, American farmers dependent on field workers are facing a major shortage in the coming harvest year. In 2025 migrant labor has been reduced by over one million workers due to deportation and an increasing culture of fear among their population.

  1. The dominance of hybrid and Genetically Modified (GM) seed in America.

In recent years scientists working for multinational corporations such as Monsanto Corp have developed GM hybrid seed. This is seed resistant to agricultural poisons such as pesticides and herbicides. (A commonly known herbicide is Roundup which is extensively used to kill weeds in crops.) Hybrid seed has many beneficial qualities when it comes to the size and color of fruits and vegetables, but unlike natural heirloom seed hybrid seed cannot be regenerated by the local farmer year after year. As a result, farms are forced to return to hybrid seed producers such as Monsanto for new seeds every year. From the beginning of man farmers extracted heirloom seed from their last year’s crop independently from commercial seed producers. All to say, these multinational corporations have purposely developed a monopoly among American farmers for seed production and availability. This is a dangerous trap for the future of agriculture. Many countries around the world, even poor countries, have recognized the problem and have passed laws which ban GMO’s within their borders. America has not.

 

  1. The rapid loss of fertile, available, affordable farmland.

I live in Idaho near what is called the Treasure Valley. I came to Idaho in the 1960’s as a college student. The Treasure Valley at that time was covered with productive farms. The population of the capital city Boise was 40,000 people and across the valley there was a plethora of small farm communities. Everything was primarily related to agriculture and food production. Today Boise is a million people and the valley has become a massive metropolitan city covered over with blacktop and housing sprawl. It is only one small example of what has happened across the nation. The USA has much undeveloped land, but muost of it is unfarmable mountains or desert while the valleys which were covered with class A fertile soil are often developed over. Farmable land is disappearing while a hungry population is growing. Young people who desire to become farmers can no longer afford the quality farmland needed even if it was available.  This is just one more scenario which frightens me for future generations as well as the future of American food production.

Over twenty years ago I preached a seven-part series called “Small Footprint / Big Handprint” which was later compiled into a book with the same title. The thesis of the message was an encouragement for people to live a more simplified sustainable life; to become less burdened by materialism and debt (small footprint), to render down their lives so they might be in a better position to impact the world around them (Large Handprint). Many of our congregation took the message to heart. One chapter spoke of seeing what storm might be brewing and in response taking steps to prepare for it. Some who had a bit of land planted gardens and raised small flocks of chickens in their backyards even within city limits. Those who didn’t have the space joined with friends and used property behind our church and started a community garden. Through the years that garden, which became known as “The Garden of Feeding”, fed literally thousands of people. Some even sold expensive homes and downsized to smaller homes which had more property and the ability to start small farmsteads.

I write this because I see “clouds rising in the west” and I believe a perfect storm is brewing. I don’t write as a fatalistic pessimist. I am writing to offer some hope and solutions to those who are open to hearing it and willing to respond. Many people become overwhelmed with the coming storms and do nothing, while others will rise up with action, not only doing what they can to prepare for calamity, but to put themselves in positions to become “a big handprint” amid the many coming trials.

My book “Small Footprint / Big Handprint – How to live simply and love extravagantly” is still available on Amazon and Kindle books. I am told Kindle is quite a bit less expensive.